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Discussion Starter #1
World population is growing exponentially.

The earth can only handle so much.

Millions of species will die.

Eventually, humans will die.


If people were limited to producing 2 children (i.e. replacing only themselves) and significantly penalized for producing more and similarly rewarded for producing less, maybe disaster could be averted.

I know this is kind of a "way out" idea...but if you think about it...science has proven that when a population exceeds the tolerance of the ecosystem, nature bitch slaps it back down by unleashing some incurable plague or something to correct the imbalance.

Think about what your state or your town looked like when you were like 5 years old compared to what it looks like now. This "sprawl" is not only continuing, it's accelerating! Those sci-fi movis like Mad Max and Escape From NY etc. aren't really that far fetched. That's where we're heading!

If you really think about it...humans are like a deadly virus. We live off our host until our host is so overwhelmed that it dies...then WE die!

I don't want to be a virus.
 

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If people were limited to producing 2 children
Yea, let the oh-so-trusty government control everything since the American people aren't capable. I suggest you take a cross country trip in your Passat out to the west coast this summer. The population centers are merely little dots compared to all the land.
 

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Thats an incredibly conservative view to take Tyranno! I'm suprised! The myth of scarcity is a conservative tool used to increase demand for goods and place a higher premium on land ownership. We are in no crisis of space or supply. It's is a complete fallacy. Our crisis is one of misuse. There is enough land and resources on this planet to support 20-35 billion INDEFINITELY BUT not as we are now. We in America produce more than enough food annually to feed the entire WORLD.. we just don't. We waste waste waste and we allow the few and powerful to horde goods while the multitude and poor horde nothing, land or goods.

Francis Moore lapp said:
Manufacturing hunger
The dominant mindset tells us we’re in a perpetual battle to overcome scarcity. Without capitalism’s relentless drive, we’d probably all be going hungry by now.
In reality, however, it is this mindset that is propelling us to create the very scarcity we say we so fear. It was precisely to ring this alarm that I wrote Diet for a Small Planet 32 years ago. My message was that we humans were creating scarcity in so many different ways, including by turning livestock – ruminants whose genius is for manufacturing protein – into massive protein disposers.

For aeons ruminants had served humans by converting grass and other non-edibles into high-grade protein. Then, in just a blink of an eye, we’d come up with concentrated grain feeding – industrial-style feedlots that in the US take 16 pounds of grain and soya and reduce them to one pound of food (in this case a cancer- and heart-disease-promoting steak).

Today, while hunger stunts the lives of hundreds of millions (people who are too poor to make a ‘market demand’ for the food they need), between a third and a half of all the world’s grain goes to feed livestock. In the last three decades meat consumption even in low-income countries has doubled. It is the better-off who are creating this demand. Thirty years ago almost no grain went to livestock in China and Thailand, for example. Now over a quarter of grain consumption in these countries occurs in the production of meat.
With feedlot-fed cattle we also invented a superb system for squandering water: the production of just one US-style steer uses enough water to float a destroyer. This, in a world where millions go without clean water and groundwater tables are sinking on every continent.
http://www.theecologist.org/archive_article.html?article=377&category=54 Read up on anything by Francis Lapp and Joseph Collins the founders of Food First.
 

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Not true. The human population will NOT grow exponentially. THat's because of socio and economic factors such as people either having only 1 child or choosing to not have any at all due to unaffordable costs or the drive to build a career over a family. For others, people are having children later on in life which decreases their chance of conceiving by a large percentage and as a result, they can't conceive at all. The human population is estimated to cap off at about 8 billion in the next 50 years or so and may even start to decline from a study that I read.
 

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OneGuyInCA said:
Not true. The human population will NOT grow exponentially. THat's because of socio and economic factors such as people either having only 1 child or choosing to not have any at all due to unaffordable costs or the drive to build a career over a family. For others, people are having children later on in life which decreases their chance of conceiving by a large percentage and as a result, they can't conceive at all. The human population is estimated to cap off at about 8 billion in the next 50 years or so and may even start to decline from a study that I read.
YUP! That's it right there!
 

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When you say something is growing exponentially, that’s inflamatory since most people automatically assume an exponent much greater than 1. But projections are for the exponent to be very close to 1. In fact, it looks like that exponent is 1.00033. Importantly, forecasts of world population have been revised downward. Check out the UN's Population Division for rational thinking about this issue, for instance:
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2002/WPP2002-HIGHLIGHTSrev1.PDF

2002 Revision projects a lower population in 2050 than the 2000 Revision did: 8.9 billion instead of 9.3 billion
Looks like your 2 children / woman wish is expected to come true:
The 2002 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections breaks new ground in terms of the assumptions made on future human fertility and the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. For the first time, the United Nations Population Division projects that future fertility levels in the majority of developing countries will likely fall below 2.1 children per woman, the level needed to ensure the long-term replacement of the population, at some point in the twenty-first century. By 2050, the medium variant of the 2002 Revision projects that 3 out of every 4 countries in the less developed regions will be experiencing below-replacement fertility.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Spirare said:
Thats an incredibly conservative view to take Tyranno! I'm suprised! The myth of scarcity is a conservative tool used to increase demand for goods and place a higher premium on land ownership. We are in no crisis of space or supply. It's is a complete fallacy. Our crisis is one of misuse. There is enough land and resources on this planet to support 20-35 billion INDEFINITELY BUT not as we are now. We in America produce more than enough food annually to feed the entire WORLD.. we just don't. We waste waste waste and we allow the few and powerful to horde goods while the multitude and poor horde nothing, land or goods.

Francis Moore lapp said:
Manufacturing hunger
The dominant mindset tells us we’re in a perpetual battle to overcome scarcity. Without capitalism’s relentless drive, we’d probably all be going hungry by now.
In reality, however, it is this mindset that is propelling us to create the very scarcity we say we so fear. It was precisely to ring this alarm that I wrote Diet for a Small Planet 32 years ago. My message was that we humans were creating scarcity in so many different ways, including by turning livestock – ruminants whose genius is for manufacturing protein – into massive protein disposers.

For aeons ruminants had served humans by converting grass and other non-edibles into high-grade protein. Then, in just a blink of an eye, we’d come up with concentrated grain feeding – industrial-style feedlots that in the US take 16 pounds of grain and soya and reduce them to one pound of food (in this case a cancer- and heart-disease-promoting steak).

Today, while hunger stunts the lives of hundreds of millions (people who are too poor to make a ‘market demand’ for the food they need), between a third and a half of all the world’s grain goes to feed livestock. In the last three decades meat consumption even in low-income countries has doubled. It is the better-off who are creating this demand. Thirty years ago almost no grain went to livestock in China and Thailand, for example. Now over a quarter of grain consumption in these countries occurs in the production of meat.
With feedlot-fed cattle we also invented a superb system for squandering water: the production of just one US-style steer uses enough water to float a destroyer. This, in a world where millions go without clean water and groundwater tables are sinking on every continent.
http://www.theecologist.org/archive_article.html?article=377&category=54 Read up on anything by Francis Lapp and Joseph Collins the founders of Food First.

Spirare, come on bro, it's FAR from a conservative view. Conservatives take the view that the land is there for the taking, to use as we want. Drill for oil here, build a high rise there. Also, conservatives (well, at least the religeous right) seem to be AGAINST birth control. I'm not talking about the MYTH of scarcity, that I acknowledge, many capitalists try to create...I'm talking about REAL scarcity, unreplaceable resources and ecosystems.

Conservation and environmental protection has always been a more Liberal view. This includes encouraging the use of birth control (esp. in third world countries where population is booming the most).

Using the example you quoted, turning farming into MANUFACTURING is not a Liberal phenomenon. On the contrary, Liberals tend to favor small family farms, free range cattle and chicken, organically fed with no genetic engineering!!!


All those predictions about population slowing are encouraging, I hope they're right, but i'm VERY suspicious :suspicio: Just look at the population of China today versus 20 years ago!

All I know is that the town in which I live used to have lots of forest, open land and nice single family residences scattered about. Now forest has been clear cut, cookie cutter developments with McMansions on postage stamp sized lots are piled on top of one another, multiperson dwellings are being put up all over the place, traffic is WAY higher, and population continues to rise. The same is true of all the other towns in all the other states that I visit.

As for the Bonehead who said something about looking out at California....Duh....the open space is desert!

I was flying over San Francisco a few years back en route to Maui and my stomach literally turned over when I looked down to see identical looking house upon house as far as the eye could see on top of each other. It resembled some kind of ant hill. I was disgusted. On top of that, I lived on Maui back in 1990 and it has become disgustingly overdeveloped just since then!!! SO SO SAD. :cry:

I don't know what the answer is...i suspect nobody will ever do anything about it. Nature will take care of it....eventually. But it's gonna hurt! :wink:
 

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Tyrannosaurus said:
All I know is that the town in which I live used to have lots of forest, open land and nice single family residences scattered about. Now forest has been clear cut, cookie cutter developments with McMansions on postage stamp sized lots are piled on top of one another, multiperson dwellings are being put up all over the place, traffic is WAY higher, and population continues to rise. The same is true of all the other towns in all the other states that I visit.
Ah, but the US population growth rate is dependent on more than birth rates. Local/regional growth rates have even less correlation to them. If people in small towns in North Dakota used the same reasoning, they might be concerned that the human population was in radical decline. You are probably seeing the results of poor regional urban planning more than anything.

That being said, the overall world population growth rate is still a cause for concern, but probably less so than 30 years ago.
 

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Conservatism is a mirror of the desires of Big Business. It is fiscally sound policy (for big business like industro-agrofarming) to drive up the price of food and food manufacture. It's not to say it's ACTUAL scarcity they just tell it's the case. It is also a fiscally and politically sound policy to drive up the price of land. It keeps the poor from holding the classic rights that stem from land ownership. I'm speaking of politics worldwide not simply in the US. There is plenty of room and plenty of food. We just waste it. We waste it here more than anywhere else on the planet.


Fashion has a role in the type of housing we build but so does zoning and federally subsidized housing starts. What you are describing is a crisis of mismanagment NOT scarcity. The reason housing is booming in the suburbs is not population growth. Availible transportation and the continued decentralization of population. Been in a city lately? They used to be booming and now they are being deserted all over the country. This is also an offshoot of the increased affluence and increased willingness for high debt (car loans so driving to work is possible) of the middle class (which is far outpaced by the growing affluence of the upper classes)The US curently has a 1% growth rate BUT we have a 2% immigration rate. If we sealed our borders our population would begin dropping by 1% immeadiately. The US has not had positive growth stemming from birth rate sin over 50 years. Are you sure you aren't using your local experience to paint a global picture? I'm not saying we aren't in a crisis but it simply is not one of opulation growth. It is one of wate and mismanagment. Oh nevermind...

Ron Paul for President!
 

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Discussion Starter #12
I'm certainly "influenced" by my personal experience, but I don't think it's in dispute that WORLD population is growing steadily.

I was recently in the Museum of Science. They had a world population display. You pushed a button and it showed you world population in 1920. Lights scattered about the globe. Then you pushed another button and way more lights lit up, concentrated mostly in URBAN areas.

Then you pushed another button and it rapidly added lights per year as it raced forward 100 years based upon a population projection model. The planet was COVERED with lights except in the most inhospitable spots (desert, arctic, etc.). It was chilling! :nervous:
 

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I studied population in Sociology at York University for a semester.
In Canada, US and Europe, reproduction is decreasing significantly becuase of the marriage decreasing aswell. Immigrants coming from other countries are filling jobs that could have been for a potential domestic child. In places like Vietnam, reproduction is up to around 7 children per family, becuase of lack of sexual education, and birth control practises.
Volunteers are already promoting birth control methods across 3rd world countries and are trying to reduce their reproduction rate... but the way i see it, unless we reproduce to fill the jobs in our our country, soon enough Canadians, Americans, and Europeans are going to be a minority in their own countries. If we seal the doors to immigration, North America and Europe, will at least be safe from the over crowding.

just my educated $0.02 on the subject
 

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Discussion Starter #15
merk20VT said:
I studied population in Sociology at York University for a semester.
In Canada, US and Europe, reproduction is decreasing significantly becuase of the marriage decreasing aswell. Immigrants coming from other countries are filling jobs that could have been for a potential domestic child. In places like Vietnam, reproduction is up to around 7 children per family, becuase of lack of sexual education, and birth control practises.
Volunteers are already promoting birth control methods across 3rd world countries and are trying to reduce their reproduction rate... but the way i see it, unless we reproduce to fill the jobs in our our country, soon enough Canadians, Americans, and Europeans are going to be a minority in their own countries. If we seal the doors to immigration, North America and Europe, will at least be safe from the over crowding.

just my educated $0.02 on the subject
Seal the doors? Gulp! :shock:

I can't speak for other countries, but the USA is a country made of Immigrants from everywhere...a melting pot! I don't view this as a problem. I know you didn't mean it that way, but it sounds like a position the Nazis would've agreed with. :???:
 

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merk20VT said:
I studied population in Sociology at York University for a semester.
In Canada, US and Europe, reproduction is decreasing significantly becuase of the marriage decreasing aswell. Immigrants coming from other countries are filling jobs that could have been for a potential domestic child. In places like Vietnam, reproduction is up to around 7 children per family, becuase of lack of sexual education, and birth control practises.
Volunteers are already promoting birth control methods across 3rd world countries and are trying to reduce their reproduction rate... but the way i see it, unless we reproduce to fill the jobs in our our country, soon enough Canadians, Americans, and Europeans are going to be a minority in their own countries. If we seal the doors to immigration, North America and Europe, will at least be safe from the over crowding.

just my educated $0.02 on the subject
It's odd and true across the animal kingdom (humans included here) that the worse the environment and less the chances of survival the more likely the culture is to reproduce at high rates. It increases the odds of a greedy genes perseverence and injects more mutations into the gene pool so physiological adaptations to crisis becme availible in the span of short generations. Increased reproduction is a specieal coping mechanism designed to run rampant in the hard times and slow down in the easy times. We could end burgeoning populations in third world countries quite simply. By feeding and watering them. Think about it. We have enough food to do it. Scarcity is a myth. It's just not at crisis point yet.
 

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:oops: i think my point was taken to literally
I was only trying to raise the point that over population is not a current issue in North America and Europe. Sealing the doors would kill our economy and create labour shortages.

i am not a nazi :wink:

p.s. I live in the T.O. one of the most multicultural cities in the the world... if not the most, and it's great :thumbup:
 

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Discussion Starter #19
merk20VT said:
:oops: i think my point was taken to literally
I was only trying to raise the point that over population is not a current issue in North America and Europe. Sealing the doors would kill our economy and create labour shortages.

i am not a nazi :wink:

p.s. I live in the T.O. one of the most multicultural cities in the the world... if not the most, and it's great :thumbup:
No man...I know you're no Nazi! :lol:

I just thought the way you stated your point lent itself to misconstruction.
 

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Tyrannosaurus said:
World population is growing exponentially.

The earth can only handle so much.

Millions of species will die.

Eventually, humans will die.
so long...

...and thanks for all the fish.
 
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