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Batteries in my opinion are a growing problem that has yet to blossom. What is the environmental impact of manufacturing them in huge quantity? How many charge cycle or years of duty before they need to be replaced and disposed of? What does it cost to re-battery an electric vehicle? What is the economic and environmental toll for disposing of these batteries?

Bear in mind, we're not talking about swapping out a couple of D-cells in a flashlight. The Chevy Volt uses a 435 lb Li-ion battery. The Tesla Model S has a 1200 lb Li-ion. The nissan Leaf carries 660 lbs of Li-ion batteries. The Prius carries 118 lbs of Li-ion batteries. Building a prototype or a couple hundred or even several thousand of these isn't the problem. The real problem is what happens when 17 million large battery dependent cars are manufactured every single year. What happens to all these batteries in 6~8 years when they need to be replaced? Can we pile them all in your back yard? This is the problem that's going to hit the fan one day. Then everyone is going to look around and say... why didn't we see the obvious coming?

I'm not even going to touch the topic of where the source energy to keep recharging all those batteries comes from.
You forgot to add how we will generate all that electricity at a reasonable price while living up to our "green" mantra?
 

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Discussion Starter #42
From Tesla's email today:

In the first 24 hours Model 3 received over 180,000 reservations, setting the record for the highest single-day sales of any product of any kind ever in world history.
(Notice how reservations have become sales....)

More importantly, we took a huge step towards building a better future by accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.
(What, exactly, do they mean by sustainable? I would really like to know Musk's plan for supplying sustainable electricity to EVs. Is he simply building his cars with the hope that the technology for sustainable electricity, in ever increasing amounts, is just beyond the horizon? I don't believe it is. Every summer around NYC, ConEdison crosses its corporate fingers and hopes the entire electrical infrastructure will not crash and burn. I wonder how they view the prospect of large numbers of EVs plugged into the grid? Then there are batteries..., as Steve points out.)

Like every Tesla, Model 3 is engineered to combine range, performance, utility and designed to be the safest car in its class. It accelerates from zero to 60 mph in less than six seconds, and can travel 215 miles on a single charge. Starting at $35,000, Model 3 comes standard with Autopilot hardware and Supercharging capability.

This kind of hyperbole set my teeth on edge.:rolleyes:
 

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Tesla’s Model 3 Already Has 325,000 Preorders

GP - You posted lots of legitimate questions, most have already been discussed and answered in the Tesla Motors Forum. You seem to be most intrigued with the future of cars, and I firmly believe BEV is the future of cars. Rather than bashing Tesla or BEV in an ICE forum, I suggest for you to sign onto this forum and post your questions, there are many open minded & knowledgeable members who will gladly and politely answer ALL your questions.

Re Model 3 hyperbole, I would agree had this been 2 yrs ago with Elon tendency to shoot off his mouth and over-promised. Since then, he has learned to tone it down and I'm sure he was pressured by the business heads to pipe down to not cause TSLA stock to fluctuate. The spec you posted and on Model 3 is all very achievable, and actually under-promised.

I don't want to get into the green tree hugger or left vs right political spat and drag this thread into the BH. But one of the main reason that I bought my Tesla is for the absolutely insane Ludicrous Mode. 0-60 2.6 sec, 1/4 mile 10.9 sec w/ 1.1 g pull are the official numbers from Motor Trend.

Motor Trend - 2015 Tesla Model S P90D w/Ludicrous Upgrade First Test Review: Lightning Strikes Twice: The World’s Quickest Four-Door is An Electric Sedan

The Ludicrous Speed upgrade combined with the “Fast and Furious”-ready Model S P90D makes for some shocking acceleration numbers. With Ludicrous mode engaged and using the new launch control feature, 60 mph in the Tesla comes in a staggeringly quick 2.6 seconds with the driver experiencing a peak of 1.1 g up through 14 mph. Given the Model S P90D hangs with hypercars in acceleration from 0 to 60 mph, the list of cars the P90D beats to 60 mph is a long one, including everything from the vaunted Nissan GT-R to the big, bad Lamborghini Aventador and Bugatti Veyron. Only two cars that we’ve tested can outright beat the P90D to 60 mph: the Porsche 918 Spyder and Ferrari LaFerrari. As for the “other” hybrid hypercar, the McLaren P1, the Tesla ties it in a race to 60 mph.
 

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Discussion Starter #44
Thank you vuvision for your post, and sharing your Tesla experience. I have no interest in bashing anyone. I would like to foment discussion of what increasingly appears to be a water-shed moment in the history of technology. ICE, after nuclear fission, is the iconic invention of the 20th century. It is said the US and its allies won WW2 because they could manufacture more trucks than Hitler. Cars have transformed the developed world and have created enormous wealth. Abandoning ICE would, no doubt, be beneficial in ways we have yet to understand, but it will have unintended consequences as well.

As for the Green thing, while Tesla is free of the tailpipe exhaust of ICE vehicles, it will only be as green as the grid itself. ASSI (According to Some Site on the Internet), renewable energy accounted for 13.7% of the total electrical energy consumption in the US (2014). The US has a baseline target goal of 20% by 2020. You may draw your own conclusions.

Hybrid or total EV, they will be transitional solutions.
 

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Discussion Starter #45
Thinking about what I wrote a week ago, I realize I was shocked to discover how currently unsustainable our electrical energy consumption is, especially here in the US. Only China consumes more electricity then the we do, the US I mean. And while a substantial percentage of electricity is generated by natural gas (20-25%), it is a fossil fuel and so not sustainable. Which begs the question: Is our current electricity consumption level sustainable by any green method? It doesn't appear that it is, and if that is the case, why is there so much enthusiasm for plug-in EVs and hybrids. Shouldn't we be looking for ways to reduce the burden on the grid?
 

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Which begs the question: Is our current electricity consumption level sustainable by any green method? It doesn't appear that it is, and if that is the case, why is there so much enthusiasm for plug-in EVs and hybrids. Shouldn't we be looking for ways to reduce the burden on the grid?
I don't think everyone considers the big picture. I think a lot of people look at the narrow view of, "I do not put a fossil fuel directly into my EV car" and at that point, they stop thinking.

As for hybrids, in some designs the batteries allow for a more efficient use of what fossil fuel is consumed, but the trade off not considered is the environmental toll of manufacture and disposal of large li-on battery packs. We still haven't figured out how to dispose of the millions of tires we manufacture yearly. Translate that problem into millions of spent battery packs.

One million one dollar bills laid end to end will extend for 96.9 miles (Grasping Large Numbers). With that image in mind, change out the little dollar bills for large lithium-ion battery packs and change the number from 1 million to 10 million. That thought experiment produces quite an alarming image. This issue can't be looked at one person at a time. This issue needs to be considered in scale. The same scaling problem goes for the energy EV's require/consume.

I'm not bashing Hybrid or EV's. I know they are an emerging technology still in its infancy. I'm just trying to be conscious of the long view. I'd love to experience Ludicrous Mode first hand. :)
 

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Discussion Starter #47
It's been about a year since Audi announced the creation of e-diesel. I don't imagine now anyone at Audi is anxious to put Audi and diesel in the same sentence, even e-diesel. ASSI, I discovered this: "In the 1990s, a Volkswagen R&D spin-off called Enginion claimed it had built a steam engine that had comparable efficiency to ICEs, but with lower emissions." Of course, the lower emissions claim was probably fictitious....
 

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Is our current electricity consumption level sustainable by any green method?
The answer to that question is complicated by the unpleasant fact that no form of "green generated" electricity is 24/7/365 uninterruptable like Nuclear, Coal and Fossil Fuel generated electricity is.

The main reason you may not have heard about this green energy "feature" yet is the media can't sell as much advertising if they run unpleasant factual editorials.

Tesla would probably go away entirely if their accounting dept. were forced to adhere to GAAP accounting standards in their 10K report :icon_eek:. If you own this "cult stock", be mindful of this...they also combine all sales figures worldwide :crazy: (-vs- breaking out the US and China from the ROW). Lotsa smoke being blown by Mr. Musk...Solar City practicing the same types of accounting shenanigans?

As for the future of cars, I think the ICE and gasoline will be with us for at least another 50 years (not that electric cars with at least ~250 miles range won't eventually take 15-20 percent of the passenger vehicle market share).
 

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Wave generation would be 24/7/365 if they could ever design a system that sea water didn't manage to keep out of service relatively quickly and often. Although not a chance in hell that people would let enough of them be installed in they way of their costal views.
 

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Tesla news:
Is this an indication of the pressure Tesla is feeling to deliver the Model 3 at it stated price point? Maybe. It's embarrassing none the less.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/16/elon-musk-tesla-wages-apology

GB - Yes it would be embarrassing if true.
Mercury News missed a digit, Tesla actually paid subcontractor $55/hr. Tesla bash continue ;).
Tesla paid $55 per hour to factory builders

@Electron Man, to GAAP or to non-GAAP, that is the question for many listed companies, you speak of this as if it is illegal. Many companies utilize non-GAAP metric to better represent economic of the business. This is perfectly appropriate and it is up to investors to decipher whether the stock is worth buying or not. I do have TSLA in my portfolio, I bought when it was below $80 and I wish I got more of this "cult stock" then.

As to whether Tesla can go away entirely, no one has a the crystal ball to predict the future. But with over 400K pre-order of the Model 3 in two short months, it is undeniable that Tesla has tapped into the mass appeal and it is here to stay.

There's a reason why Tesla Model S outsells MB, BMW, Audi & Porsche in the luxo mobile category. I said this before, but let me repeat, the Model S is by far the best daily car I've ever owned.




 

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If I were to order a Model 3 today, I wonder when or if I would ever receive it? With Tesla reporting last month "more than 325,000 reservations", a delivery date of "late 2017" and estimates of an annual production of 200-250K automobiles I could wait a while.

As far as outselling the other manufacturers, the data I have reviewed doesn't show sales out pacing MB. The data for MB are separated by model and below the Model S, but when combined outpaces Tesla. Don't get me wrong, I would order a viable alternative fuel vehicle today if it were to offer what my current vehicle does, a reliable and habitual 1000 km range between fueling. So my perspective is somewhat skewed when a advertised 200 mile range is touted in the same article as, "Yesterday's report also said the company will open up 300 more of its Supercharger charging locations, a more than 50% increase that would bring the North American total to just under 900. That would make it not just possible, but effortless, to take an all-electric version of the Great American Road Trip." Fortune.com

Possible? I am almost certain. Effortless? An exaggeration. I could hop into any IC car and not have to worry about choosing a route to incorporate a fuel station at strategic points unlike an electric car and charging stations. I understand the demand/market is growing but there are areas for improvement. Expecting the Model S to be the norm as a daily car is not realistic.

Nothing would provide me with greater satisfaction than a majority reliance on alternative fuels, as I am witnessing first hand what the drop in oil prices have resulted in with the "optimistic" Middle Eastern fiscal attitude once present in the not so distant past. Look at the ambitious plan just announced by the Saudis. Some of the countries here in the region are more forward looking and progressive in their thinking but the others have started to take action on how to continue and sustain an unsound reliance on a commodity which disproportionately increased the region's economic stance.

The future of cars? I truly hope, sooner than later, an alternative acceptable to auto enthusiasts like the members of PW would appreciate is made available to the world whatever the source of propulsion or production is. Wouldn't it be ironic if the successful model originates from the Middle East?
 

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@hu vw - I read there are less than 30 moving parts in the Model S. As to reliability, pretty much comes down to electromagnetic motor vs. combustion engine w/ hundred of moving parts, transmission w/ gears & fluid, alternator, ect... I'll let you come to your own decision. I'm not sure why you choose the arbitrary 1,000 km but roll back to post #17 for my explanation as actual EV owner.

If you place order for Model 3 now, with over 400K units pre-ordered, good chance you won't see it well after 2018. Elon, has an insurmountable problem of ramping up for mass production ... a nice problem to have nevertheless.

I was referring to luxo car sold in the US.
 

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Please don't interpret my posts or attitude towards EVs as negative. I am very receptive of anything reducing the world's (especially the U.S.'s) dependency on oil and have only praise for Mr. Musk's maverick approach in his efforts to pioneer the way. I wish Musk/Tesla only the best in achieving "Our overarching goal is to maximize total customer happiness within the bounds of what is physically possible." Tesla Motors, March 21, 2016

My 1,000 km is what I am able to reliably and repeatedly achieve with a TDI 4Motion Passat repeatedly on trips encompassing both mixed and highway driving. I have driven extensively in the both the U.S. and Europe and can honestly say I never had to worry about finding fuel. To take an EV from my birth area of the Brazosport area on the Texas Gulf Coast to a location on the West Coast, say L.A. would require research and calculation to establish charging availability and peace of mind on my part. As far as reliability, I won't even broach that topic on either IC vehicles or EVs based upon too many variables associated with that topic. Time will be the factor to allow a denser coverage in relation to charging stations and advancement in technology allowing greater range.

Looking at Musk's business plan from both perspectives of why produce a luxury EV prior to an affordable EV is appropriate or inappropriate leaves some questions unanswered in my mind. Without intimate knowledge of his intent or plan I only mention the topic as I find it interesting to field a luxury class EV prior to a widely established receptive market for an affordable and available platform. Just very interesting to me. Based off the number of "reservations" already garnished, the demand is present but considering the current "I want it now" attitude in society, Musk/Tesla could face negative feedback.

Where are you getting the 400K number for pre-orders from? The latest press release on the Tesla website from April 17th states the number (>325K) I used in my post. Tesla Motors, April 17, 2016 And the data I referenced and what you posted (the same) has to be fully considered before solely accepting and believing what media spews, and unfortunately accepted as fact. Combine the manufacturers' numbers to represent total numbers versus separate models and the graph changes. I am not arguing Tesla's sales are impressive, but with the tendency for media to present information somewhat biased or skewed and society's neglect or inability to fully interpret the data presented. If I were on the board of any of the manufacturers whose sales data is represented, I would be worried.
 

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hu vw - Not at all, I think this is all positive and informative discussion. If I sound like a Tesla fanboyz, my apologies ... wait, re-reading some of my posts I do sound like one, lol. I just want to chime to give my two cents on this topic from an actual EV owner perspective, that's all. Regarding planning for long trip, there's nothing to it, I simply punching in my destination on my Tesla Navi system and the built-in software will determine and navigate me to the supercharging stations along the route. It will even remind you when you're running low on juice and direct you to the nearest charging station. I understand this is an entirely different approach to what ICE owners are used to, but I can tell you first hand that it can be done 'effortlessly' ;).

That said, if you drive more than 250 miles a day, then EV is definitely not for you. But to 95%+ of the population who have less than 100 mile commute, EV will work well for us.

Elon Musk Confirms Tesla's Model 3 Has Nearly 400,000 Orders
 

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Discussion Starter #59
Sounds like it's time to get into the used car business in Germany.;) Apparently, Germany has an abundance of wind generated KWs with no effective way to store it, leading to massive inconsistencies in supply and demand; creating what is called a balancing market. See this Bloomberg link from a couple years ago, German Utilities Bail Out Electric Grid at Wind?s Mercy - Bloomberg Sounds like cart before the horse to me. Perhaps they hope to store it in cars?
 

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Sounds like it's time to get into the used car business in Germany.;) Apparently, Germany has an abundance of wind generated KWs with no effective way to store it, leading to massive inconsistencies in supply and demand; creating what is called a balancing market. See this Bloomberg link from a couple years ago, German Utilities Bail Out Electric Grid at Wind?s Mercy - Bloomberg Sounds like cart before the horse to me. Perhaps they hope to store it in cars?
Powerwall
https://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall
 
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