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in dire need of an organic chemistry lesson
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I'll take that bet.
OK what's your method of payment in case you lose the bet?

Then the currently non-existent batteries would have to move from the lab into mass production. Then the infrastructure to replace the many (millions?) of gas station pumps with EV plugs and the electrical grid to support them would have to be built. I'd say it's a long shot at best.
Not really! the way I envision it, there will be replaceable batteries. When the battery is close to empty you simply drive to a charging station, you open the hood, you take out the battery and they give you a charged battery and you drive. The whole battery replacement can also be done by robots and you don't even have to exit your vehicle. The entire process is done less than 30 seconds (even much faster than current gas refueling!). Either this, or they will come up with a charging system that when you hook in to your battery at the station it will fully charge it in less than 3 minutes.
 

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I'll take that bet.

In other words, EV's need a miracle. Then the currently non-existent batteries would have to move from the lab into mass production. Then the infrastructure to replace the many (millions?) of gas station pumps with EV plugs and the electrical grid to support them would have to be built. I'd say it's a long shot at best.
Ditto.
First EVs came out over 25 years ago.
Hell, the first diesel/electric hybrids are over 100 years old.

battery technology had a long way to go before we can really think about wholesale swapping over.
most realistic way to (soon/now) get "refueling" in EVs is to have a removable battery along the lines of what Rivian is thinking in their "extended range" pack. You would have a membership and basically lease batteries separately from the vehicle, and then you would also pay for your electric usage. in order to refuel you would go to places and basically swap out batteries for a full one.
 

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in dire need of an organic chemistry lesson
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Ditto.
First EVs came out over 25 years ago.
Hell, the first diesel/electric hybrids are over 100 years old.
battery technology had a long way to go before we can really think about wholesale swapping over.
most realistic way to (soon/now) get "refueling" in EVs is to have a removable battery along the lines of what Rivian is thinking in their "extended range" pack. You would have a membership and basically lease batteries separately from the vehicle, and then you would also pay for your electric usage. in order to refuel you would go to places and basically swap out batteries for a full one.
If your theory is realistic by any way, then that's only good news to me because I am planning to keep my Passat and sell it in an auction for several hundred-K $$ to finance my retirement.
 

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Then comes the problem of battery maintenance and accountability. If that quick change battery at the “refueling” station came from someone else’s car with unknown charging cycles, abuse, internal damage, age, etc, then what happens if it fails? Who is liable for replacement?

Edit: my late reply did not take leasing the battery into account, but those are still challenges to face with swapping batteries.

Formula E couldn’t even do it. They actually had to swap cars mid race in past seasons. Now, their battery and motor tech has caught up to power the vehicle for the duration of the race.


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in dire need of an organic chemistry lesson
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Then comes the problem of battery maintenance and accountability. If that quick change battery at the “refueling” station came from someone else’s car with unknown charging cycles, abuse, internal damage, age, etc, then what happens if it fails? Who is liable for replacement?

Edit: my late reply did not take leasing the battery into account, but those are still challenges to face with swapping batteries.
That is easy to solve. Advanced electronic equipment can readily check the health of any battery. In other words, you get delivered a healthy one and you have to swap it with a healthy one or pay for a rebate. Also, cars can be equipped with such monitoring gauges as well so you know where you are up to.

Formula E couldn’t even do it. They actually had to swap cars mid race in past seasons. Now, their battery and motor tech has caught up to power the vehicle for the duration of the race.
That is lo-tech for now. Soon the technology will resolve all these issues. I think within only 10 more years (or even less!) battery technology will be ready to face all these challenges.
 

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That may be true, but it will still be costly and almost certainly be passed on to consumers if not subsidized l. Running costs to the consumer may rival current traditional fuel costs. Yes, as time goes on it may be less and less, but that may take some time.


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in dire need of an organic chemistry lesson
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That may be true, but it will still be costly and almost certainly be passed on to consumers if not subsidized l. Running costs to the consumer may rival current traditional fuel costs. Yes, as time goes on it may be less and less, but that may take some time.
EV is still a premature tech. But it's moving fast. Guess who are the major investors in battery and electric car tech development? The major oil congratulates!!! They are smart enough to see that the near future trend will only be EVs. So they are diversifying their assets not to be surprised by sudden drop in demand for gas.

They have already made batteries that last for 600 miles. I think I read they are coming with 1000 miles version in 2 years. So, are we going to drive more than 1000 miles a day before we need a recharge?
 

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They have already made batteries that last for 600 miles. I think I read they are coming with 1000 miles version in 2 years. So, are we going to drive more than 1000 miles a day before we need a recharge?
that 600/1000 mile range is going to drop rather fast in 0 degree weather, heat on, a few people in the car....

might have that range in TX or AZ in january, but aren't going to have it in VT or CO in january
 

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Guess who are the major investors in battery and electric car tech development?
the same people that killed the EV 25 years ago?
"continual pressure from the oil industry, orchestrated hype over a future hydrogen car, and finally the George W. Bush administration."
Not like Bush 2: electric bugaloo had any interest's in the petroleum industry given that he lives/d in texas (born in new haven, CT..."southern" my ass)...oh wait yes he did.

The major oil conglomerates!
Fixed that for you.
Also not in the US, but in europe.

"OIL COMPANIES ARE PUTTING MONEY INTO CHARGING STATIONS, BUT THEY PROBABLY AREN’T GIVING UP GAS ANYTIME SOON
Like the big U.S. automakers, oil companies are taking a hard look at the future of electric cars. In the last two years BP, Shell, and Chevron have put tens of millions of dollars into startups that build, own, or operate EV charging stations. A spokesperson for Chevron said the company is committed to “investing in the future of energy” and believes its play in the EV sector will give it key insight into the charging infrastructure business.

Notably, these investments amount to pocket change for oil majors, leaving observers skeptical of their intent. Ryan Popple, head of electric bus-maker Proterra, told Axios that he is wary of oil firms who want to invest in his company, saying, “I would be worried to really disclose what we are up to, what our strategy is, to an oil major.”

Clean-energy champions are similarly dubious. “Anybody who is suspicious of the oil industry’s motives is probably right,” said Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign. “I think these guys are usually nefarious. That doesn’t mean that they always will be, and someday they will have to change. I just don’t know if that day has come.”

Jigar Shah, cofounder and president of clean energy investment firm Generate Capital and a veteran of BP, offered a more nuanced view. Shah said that oil companies are likely trying to shore up their public image by making nominal investments in charging stations, even as they remain committed to oil, which is what shareholders want."

from If you think car companies are slow to embrace the EV revolution, look at oil companies

 

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in dire need of an organic chemistry lesson
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that 600/1000 mile range is going to drop rather fast in 0 degree weather, heat on, a few people in the car....might have that range in TX or AZ in january, but aren't going to have it in VT or CO in january
That happens to the regular batteries not the ones in EV. Again, the advance tech would address all these issues. The Ev batteries are self-sustaining to some extend. They can sense the environment temp and draw some of its own stored power to warm itself enough not to lose its juice in extreme cold. I'm not so much worried about such hurdles. I recall early 90s when digital cameras were slowly introduced. Lot of people were skeptical arguing that a digital camera can never produce enough granularity to rival an analog film-based camera. We witnessed what happened thereafter. If I were you, I would buy and accumulate EV stocks. You won't regret it (remember Amazon, Google, Apple) :sneaky:
 

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in dire need of an organic chemistry lesson
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Fixed that for you.
Surpringly, the most profit of the oil companies is not from selling gas. It's from other chemical products that they refine from crude oil. The petrochemical products account for most profit as they are by far more expensive than gas.

So, as long as there is oil in the ground, the oil companies will keep making huge money with petrochemical products. Meanwhile, they also invest big in EV tech and converting their existing franchised stations.
 

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If I were you, I would buy and accumulate EV stocks. You won't regret it (remember Amazon, Google, Apple) :sneaky:
I have much bigger problems than worrying about investing. like paying my next month's mortgage.
sucks when you make 1/6th of what I made 10 years ago at 30.
 
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